Analogue assessment involves comparing a current or future product or market to historical or similar situations to make predictions or projections. It typically involves identifying analogous products or markets and leverage their historical data to estimate the potential performance of a new product or market.
We suggest a framework to facilitate this process. The framework employs selection of companies, considering factors such as product characteristics, type of indication, regulatory environment, social impact, profitability, competitive landscapes, etc. Based on the comparisons, companies gets classified into 4 categories:
Once the analogues are plotted and the quadrants are defined, it becomes easier to analyze the analogues within each quadrant to draw insights, for specific purposes:
1. Identical: Analog(s) will help determine Adoption curve, Pricing, Cost of sales, Opex, and Market access
2. Homogenous: Analog(s) to estimate the Cost of sales and Pricing of the product at some level
3. Alternative: Analog(s) to assess Adoption curve, Pricing, Opex, and Market access
4. Irrelevant: Companies with different product types and different indication
The specific details and weights assigned to each criterion are subjective and depend on the context of the study in question.
Different studies or assessments where the analog assessment framework can be of use:
- Revenue forecasting: The framework can help employ selection of companies to analyze and estimate future cash flow and profitability of the product under consideration
- Market Sizing: The framework can help estimate the size of a market, in terms of both volume and value, and assists in identifying market opportunities and potential threats
- Valuation model: By comparing the product of interest with all analogous products, the framework can assist in estimating the value of a company. This involves determining the fair market value of the product and considering its similarities and comparisons with other relevant products
We have also performed some projects that demonstrate our approach in action:
The client needed our help to conduct due diligence on their assets and test their competitive landscape. One of their assets was in development and there were no direct competitors in the market. We used analog selection framework to perform market sizing and develop a revenue forecast model. This framework played a key role in assessing the product’s strategic alignment with the client’s goals.
https://healtharkinsights.com/case-study/analog-selection-framework/