Evaluate market opportunity and forecast sales for a Point-of-Care Ultrasound (POCUS) system in GCC & India
Background and scope
Our client is a diversified business with deep roots in the Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey (MENAT) region. The client has vast experience in the automotive sector and has diversified into new sectors. Their Health and wellness vertical started in 2020, engaged us to support decision-making around adding a Point-of-Care Ultrasound (POCUS) in their product portfolio. The POCUS would become one of the initial offerings in the distributor’s portfolio. So it was necessary to assess product potential, POCUS market, specific opportunities, and challenges in the focus countries (KSA, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, India).
The client engaged Healthark Insights to assess the Point-of-Care Ultrasound (POCUS) market and forecast volume for an FDA-cleared POCUS in GCC & India.
The objective was to create a slide deck about the product, its overview, features, specifications, competitive advantages over traditional and other POCUS systems. Also, to estimate the product potential, create a detailed volume forecast for the next five years in the focus countries to help the client for a go / no go decision.
Understand POCUS and its market
Healthark did comprehensive secondary research to understand the POCUS market in the focus countries. We analyzed key factors affecting the market – market drivers, market segments, restraints, regulatory considerations, distribution and reimbursement landscape, physician awareness & adoption, etc. We have identified regulatory challenges such as the PNDT act in India, limiting the potential of portable ultrasound in the country.
Analyze the specific POCUS of interest
We understood the potential POCUS in focus through secondary research and analyzed its specifications, differentiating factors, competitive advantage, regulatory stage, development phase, plans, market traction, and team strength.
We also conducted primary research in a few markets to understand the target product’s awareness, adoption, market drivers, and challenges for a POCUS. For the process, we interviewed the relevant stakeholders such as physicians (radiologists, gynecologists, etc.), medical device distributors operating in the imaging space.
Create a detailed bottom-up volume forecast
Healthark prepared a bottom-up volume forecast to understand the sales potential of the particular product for the GCC + India markets. We identified the type and number of target customers, current installed base, the growth rate of the installed base, and annual replacement cycle for each country through a mix of primary and secondary research. We assumed an adoption curve through primary research until peak penetration reached in the next 5-7 years in different countries. We estimated country-wise annual sales volume based on the regulatory timelines in those countries.
Prepare a Pro-forma P&L to adjudge the financial feasibility.
As a final step, Healthark forecasted the topline and bottom-line in the focus markets to decide the outcome of the exercise. Our client, a distributor, had thin margins, and getting the granular level details was significantly important. We calculated the revenue of the whole system (device, accessories, software cost, warranty) considering the device, software, accessories, warranty costs, etc. To get the client’s margin, we created a cost cascade from the manufacturer’s price till it gets to the patient.
Based on our volume forecast and product analysis, we advised the client to proceed with the POCUS and initiate further discussion with the product company. The detailed bottom-up forecast was a huge factor in favor of going ahead with the distribution agreement. We built a Pro-forma P&L and quarterly order plan to analyze cash outflows considering the client’s budgetary constraints.